Massanutten Resort / Harrisonburg

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Harrisonburg, VA

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Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... An area of low pressure will track across the Great Lakes on Sunday bringing with it breezy conditions. High pressure returns for Monday and Tuesday along with a gradual warming trend into midweek.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Cirrus has overspread most of the area as southerly winds have increased this evening. Temperatures won't drop much tonight, as most areas settle in the mid to upper 20s. By late tonight, expect temps to warm to the low 30s by sunrise. Dry.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure continues to move well offshore Sunday as south to southwest winds usher in much milder conditions to the area. A mid-upper level trough dives southeast over our area, and then offshore very quickly Sunday night into Monday. While the upper-level system is fairly potent, the associated surface low is going to develop well offshore. This keeps most of our area dry Sunday, except for far southern MD and King George County where a few showers are possible in the afternoon and evening. Afternoon highs Sunday reach the upper 40s to low 50s. Mild conditions Sunday night with lows in the 30s.

A dry cold front quickly moves through the area Sunday night. Monday's high temperatures are forecast to be a touch cooler, mostly west of the Blue Ridge. Still, mid 40s to low 50s are forecast. A strong upper ridge settles in place across the Southeast CONUS Monday night. Cooler temperatures are expected Monday night as surface high pressure settles overhead.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper level ridging is forecast to settle over the southeastern US on Tuesday and remain in place through the second half of the week. A strong high will settle along the eastern seaboard which will lead to a blocking pattern through Friday. The positioning of the high off- shore will lead to a warming trend for the region through Friday with the region potentially observing multiple days in the 60s which would be almost 20 degrees above normal for February. A weak front associated with a low lifting northward through central Canada is forecast to drop through our region Monday through Tuesday and then stall somewhere over the mid-Atlantic. A lack of moisture along with the best forcing remaining over Canada will likely mean precipitation amounts will remain low and coverage more isolated to scattered in nature.

A stronger system may impact our region by the end of the week as an upper level low passes through the Midwestern US and the Great Lakes region. The strength of the blocking high off the eastern seaboard will determine where the heaviest axis of precipitation settles over our region late next week. A strong pressure gradient between the surface low passing through the midwestern US and a high pressure off the east coast may lead to strong winds over our region, Thursday into Friday. The higher ridge tops could experience near wind advisory level winds.

Models have the front associated with the late week system passing through our region some time Thursday through Friday. The boundary is then forecast to lift northward this weekend as a coastal low potentially forms along the boundary. Depending on the track and strength of the coastal low, our region could see additional precipitation along with some wintry precipitation along the Allegheny front this weekend. Near normal temperatures return next weekend behind the frontal passage.

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