|Dew Point:||6.8°F (-14.0°C)|
|Wind:||From the SSW at 2.0 MPH Gusting to 2.0 MPH|
|Sea Level Pressure:||28.76" (973.9 mb)|
Mostly CloudyHigh: 44 Low: 34
Light RainHigh: 43 Low: 39
Rain then Rain ShowersHigh: 48 Low: 37
Rain Showers LikelyHigh: 43 Low: 33
Slight Chance Rain Showers then Mostly SunnyHigh: 46 Low: 28
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. South wind around 6 mph.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. South wind around 5 mph.
Rain after 10am. Cloudy, with a high near 43. Southeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Rain. Cloudy, with a low around 39. Northeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
Rain before 7am, then rain showers. Cloudy, with a high near 48. Northeast wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Rain showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Rain showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
A slight chance of rain showers before 7am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 46.
... High pressure will linger over the region through tonight. A large area of low pressure will impact the area at the end of the week through this weekend bringing widespread rain and potential for flooding. High pressure will return early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mid-upper level ridge will build over the area today through Fri leading to a warm up. Temperatures could get close to 50F in some places today. It appears we'll see more sun than anticipated earlier. No precipitation is expected.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Models continue to trend later with the arrival of precipitation on Friday, favoring the afternoon and evening hours for much of the area. This will be in response to a large area of low pressure nearing the Tennessee Valley, allowing rain to overspread the region Friday afternoon and persisting into Saturday. Rainfall Friday night and into Saturday morning will be heavy at times as precipitable water values will range between 1.25 to 1.50 inches. With the recent snowfall over the southern tier of the CWA, and likely unreceptive soils, the potential for flooding will exist. Areas along and east of the Blue Ridge, primarily over central Virginia where snow pack remains will be favored. A Flood Watch may be required later today or tonight should model trends continue with similar solutions and QPF holds serve.
The heaviest rainfall will taper off Saturday morning as the first wave of precipitation moves off to the north and east. However, with a closed upper low and surface low remaining just off to our southwest, additional showers are expected Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. By daybreak Sunday, some locations may be nearing two inches of received rainfall. This will yield a continued threat for localized flooding. Despite the cloudy and rainy conditions, one silver lining will be the milder temperatures. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s, while lows Saturday night will bottom out in the upper 30s to middle 40s.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... GFS and ECMWF have been slowly converging on the track of the upper level low which will pass eastward into the Atlantic Sunday into Sunday night. With the GFS trending a bit south and the EC trending north somewhat, the odds that the upper system and its resultant surface low cross our region with more rain are increasing. Adjusted POPs upward to widespread likely on Sunday due to this. Temps look likely to be stuck in the 40s thanks to this low track, though that is close to normal for mid December. Both GFS and EC send the system east of us into the western Atlantic Sunday night, so there is reasonable confidence that we will see a drying trend by then. Monday will actually be a bit milder with some sun before a Canadian cold front crosses the region later in the day, resulting in a brief cool down for Tuesday. Winds with the front could be 30-40 mph late Monday, something we will need to watch. By Wednesday, temps start to rebound with sunshine as high pressure sits over the region.