|Dew Point:||63.0°F (17.2°C)|
|Wind:||From the South at 1.0 MPH Gusting to 9.0 MPH|
|Sea Level Pressure:||29.93" (1013.4 mb)|
Hi 73 °F
Hi 61 °F
Hi 67 °F
Hi 68 °F
Hi 70 °F
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73. West wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
A slight chance of showers before 8pm, then a chance of showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. North wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Showers, mainly after 11am. High near 61. Northeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Showers, mainly before 8pm. Low around 55. East wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 67. Light and variable wind becoming south 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 8pm. Cloudy, with a low around 57. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
A chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 70.
ern Appalachians. Moderate rainfall is beginning to pull eastward. Rainfall amounts have been up to two-thirds of an inch, with possibly a higher stripe near an inch in St. Marys County...but well less than anything that would produce flooding.
Trends this afternoon are more optimistic. The break in the rain seen over the Shenandoah Valley should work eastward. Slow moving cold front will be inching eastward this afternoon, though it may not reach the I-95 corridor until this evening. Instability will be limited at best due early precip and clouds. However, in daytime heating behind the first round of precip, 500-800 J/kg of CAPE will be possible along and east of I-81, and have entertained a chance of thunder in this area, with any scattered showers that form along the front. Think shear/instability will be weak enough to preclude stronger storms, but trends will need to be monitored. Will be ending precip chances along with the dry air infiltrating behind the front.
Temperatures will still have the opportunity to rise into the 70s this afternoon, but how far will depend on the clouds.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will briefly build across the region tonight. However, the frontal zone won`t be all that far offshore, and clearing unlikely for point east of the Blue Ridge.
Guidance has, for a couple of cycles now, been inducing cyclogenesis across the southeastern United States late tonight near a 500mb shortwave and the right rear quad of the upper jet. The track of this low will bring rain back to central Virginia and southern Maryland by late tonight. The focus will remain across southern/eastern areas, with a good dose of associated precipitation though Tuesday.
One difference this cycle though is the compact nature of the low (tight precip gradient on the northwestern edge) and progressive speed. That means that precip will be exiting by Tuesday evening. Have backed off on Tuesday night precip substantially. Am hesitant to drop PoPs entirely as current guidance suggests, but am at a lower confidence "chance".
A closed upper low will be moving south into the Mid-west Wednesday while a sfc low and associated cold front moves eastward across the Ohio Valley. A brief period of subsidence is expected across the Mid- Atlantic Wednesday leading to mostly dry conditions for most of the day however instability will increase across the Allegheny Front and creep northward into central VA Wed afternoon. This may cause a few showers and thunderstorms to form however confidence is low through the afternoon. Mostly dry conditions will come to an end Wed evening as rain progresses from south to north across the Mid-Atlantic region into Thu morning. Elevated instability is expected and thunderstorms are possible Wed night.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A cold front will be in vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic region Thursday. Showers and a few thunderstorms should be ongoing Thu morning as low pressure rides along the cold front. Depending on the speed of the front showers and thunderstorms may continue through the day Thursday. Shear profiles show weak shear and therefore thunderstorms are expected to be sub-severe. The caveat is that heavy rain is possible in thunderstorms. Will need to monitor the threat if training storms occur.
An upper level trough will move over head Thu-Thu night. The cold front should be east of the Mid-Atlantic region by Fri morning and northwest flow is expected. Disturbances may move across the region under the influence of the upper level trough Friday and a chance for showers exists.
High pressure will build into the Mid-Atlantic region Friday- Saturday. Dry weather is expected through Saturday. Low pressure will move into the Ohio Valley Sat night and Sun and showers and thunderstorms are possible during this time.