|Dew Point:||14.0°F (-10.0°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||28.76" (973.9 mb)|
SleetHigh: 30 Low: 30
Chance Light Rain then Partly SunnyHigh: 53 Low: 34
Chance Light RainHigh: 43 Low: 33
Light RainHigh: 42 Low: 40
Rain then Chance Rain ShowersHigh: 60 Low: 33
Sleet and freezing rain. Cloudy, with a high near 30. Southeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected.
Sleet and freezing rain before 10pm, then rain. Cloudy. Low around 30, with temperatures rising to around 40 overnight. South wind 8 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of less than half an inch possible. Little or no ice accumulation expected.
A chance of rain before 7am. Partly sunny, with a high near 53. West wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A chance of rain after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Northwest wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 43. Northeast wind 2 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Rain. Cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Rain. Cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Rain. Cloudy, with a low around 40. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Rain before 7am, then a chance of rain showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 60. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
... Low pressure will track from the Mississippi valley into the Great Lakes today through tonight. Coastal low pressure will develop along the Mid-Atlantic Coast tonight before moving off to our northeast Thursday. High pressure will return Thursday night and Friday before another low pressure impacts the area early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Snow overspread the CWA this morning and is now transitioning to sleet and freezing rain across southern and western locations, including southern and western portions of Maryland, central and northwestern Virginia, and eastern West Virginia. Snow persists at present from DC northwestward to Hagerstown and points north and east, but the transition should continue sliding northeast across the remaining portions of the region through midday. Warming surface temps will then begin to spead across the region from southeast to northwest, allowing the sleet and freezing rain to change to plain rain, but this progress is notoriously hard to forecast and our confidence on this timing remains lower than we'd like. Will maintain headlines for now but may start to chop away at the winter storm warning in areas where it is becoming apparent that criteria is not being met, while as temps warm in southern MD, we may start chipping away at the advisory. Precip should end as rain or a very marginal freezing rain late tonight across the region.
Of note is that available instability aloft has been impressive enough to generate sporadict lightning strikes, and these may continue into the early afternoon as precip continues to transition from snow to ice.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Cdfnt clears the area early on Thu with rain ending by 09Z if not sooner. High pressure then builds over the area Thu night with next round of overrunning precip associated with developing southern Plains cyclone beginning late Fri night. Given milder period ahead and high pressure at a more eastward position, this appears to be a mostly rain event except possibly in far NW Maryland where some freezing rain is possible.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Warm front will be crossing the area Saturday, with more than enough isentropic lift to induce a swath of precipitation. Thermal profiles will be sufficiently warm for this to be all rain. With a trajectory off of the Gulf of Mexico, anticipate that moisture won't be a hinderance. Model guidance suggesting precipitable water will be exceeding an inch...and approaching an impressive (for February) 1.5 inches by Saturday night. Any remaining snow should be melted away, as temperatures drop little Saturday night in continued warm advection. But, the rainfall and snowmelt could lead to flooding concerns, as suggested by the NAEFS MMERF.
Temperatures will continue to rise well into the 60s on Sunday ahead of a cold front, which may lead to additional showers. A tight thermal gradient should lead to strong cold advection, and thus windy conditions.
High pressure will build across the northeast Monday-Tuesday. Since broad ridging remains 850-500 mb, temperatures don't drop considerably...and will remains at or above climo normals Monday, receding to near normal by Tuesday. (Cold advection/breezy conditions will continue into Monday.) With a jetmax along the central Atlantic coast, systems will be progressive. Chance PoPs will return by the end of the day Tuesday.