|Dew Point:||26.6°F (-3.0°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||28.58" (967.9 mb)|
Mostly CloudyLow: 64
Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 79 Low: 68
Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 82 Low: 68
Showers And Thunderstorms LikelyHigh: 79 Low: 66
Showers And Thunderstorms LikelyHigh: 77 Low: 67
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Southwest wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. Southwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Southwest wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8am and 2pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Southwest wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. West wind 6 to 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
A chance of rain showers before 8am, then showers and thunderstorms likely between 8am and 2pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 2am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
... High pressure will move offshore through tonight. A cold front will approach the area from the north Sunday. The front will stall out nearby on Monday and remain nearly stationary across the area through the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Mid and high level clouds are still persisting, but satellite loops and model forecasts indicate this current batch should push eastward late in the day. Temperatures are still responding into the upper 70s and lower 80s due to a gusty southerly wind and some sun.
Additional mid and high clouds will cross the area overnight, originating from convection in the Ohio Valley. Current projections show that the decaying convection will largely stay north of the area through the night, though still can't rule out a shower in the Potomac Highlands. Expect a milder night with lows in the 60s.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Convective outlook for Sunday is still rather uncertain pending evolution of today's activity to the west, and the approach of a cold front from the north. There's some potential for showers during the morning due to a low level jet...or at the very least, some clouds. If sun can be realized, a warmer and more humid day will unfold as southerly flow continues. Potential triggers for convection include the terrain, a lee trough, and differential heating boundary from the clouds. There's also potential for a convective complex to develop upstream in association with a shortwave and propagate into the area toward evening. If heating/CAPE can be maximized, there will be moderate shear to present a threat of locally severe storms.
Looks like there will be a lull in showers/storms late Sunday night into Monday morning as the area resides between two shortwaves. A muggier airmass will only allow lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Fine scale details get muddier as the forecast progresses due to uncertainty of the position of the southward sinking front and timing of shortwave energy. Currently, a shortwave is projected to approach the area Monday evening with an attendant low level jet. As this interacts with the boundary, moderate instability, and high precipitable water, there could be some potential for slow moving and/or repetitive storms. While highest QPF continues to be north/west of the area, 12Z guidance does indicate a secondary enhancement across our forecast area that will need to be monitored.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure over the Western/central Atlantic will continue to funnel warm and moist air into the region Tuesday through Thursday. Meanwhile, the aforementioned frontal boundary remains stalled near/north of the CWA. So south of that boundary, expecting very warm and humid conditions, with highs into the mid 80s on Tuesday, and cooling a bit on Wednesday into the low 80s. Both days will see dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s, so it will be quite muggy.
As far as precipitation is concerned, it will be a very active period. This is due to the presence of the stalled frontal boundary, and multiple pieces of upper-level energy moving across the region. Tuesday may be dry to start, but a piece of upper-level energy will sweep across the region later Tuesday through early Wednesday, bringing a surface low pressure system along with it. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely during this time, with very heavy rainfall possible.
A stronger area of low pressure will slide by to our north and west throughout the day on Thursday, which should act to finally lift the front north of the area. As a result, temperatures will increase once again on Thursday, back into the mid 80s, with dew points continuing to be oppressive in the upper 60s to low 70s. By Thursday afternoon/evening, expect a round of thunderstorms to accompany the passage of the cold from associated with the aforementioned low.
Friday looks to remain mostly dry, other than some showers and storms in the higher elevations. Temperatures will see a slight dip into the low to mid 80s, but it should be less humid.