|Dew Point:||19.4°F (-7.0°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||28.50" (964.9 mb)|
Mostly ClearLow: 31
Mostly SunnyHigh: 47 Low: 32
Partly SunnyHigh: 46 Low: 37
Slight Chance Light RainHigh: 49 Low: 34
Slight Chance Light Rain then Mostly SunnyHigh: 44 Low: 29
Mostly clear, with a low around 31. West wind 6 to 9 mph.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 47. Southwest wind around 5 mph.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 32. South wind around 5 mph.
Partly sunny, with a high near 46. South wind around 6 mph.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. Southwest wind around 8 mph.
A slight chance of rain after 7am. Partly sunny, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
A slight chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34.
A slight chance of rain before 7am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 44.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 29.
... High pressure will build in from the Ohio Valley over the weekend. A cold front will approach from the Great Lakes early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Low pressure continues to pull away toward Nova Scotia this afternoon as high pressure builds in from the west. As the gradient weakens, winds will diminish tonight, which will allow for temperatures to fall below freezing in most areas away from the city centers and along the tidal waters. Therefore, any lingering meltwater could refreeze on untreated surfaces. Some high res guidance is trying to develop low clouds tonight, but wonder if model snowpack is resulting in too much boundary layer moisture. Will keep forecast partly/mostly clear.
A bit of a pressure trough lingers along the spine of the Appalachians. This convergence may combine with shallow upslope moisture to produce light precipitation along the Allegheny Front tonight, though it is far from certain. Flurries or freezing drizzle are possible, but am not confident enough to include in the forecast.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The center of high pressure will move over the area on Saturday and off to the east by Sunday morning. Weather will be dry but clouds will begin increasing Saturday night ahead of the next system. Temperatures will continue below normal with highs in the 40s and low 50s and lows near or below freezing.
A weak front -- lacking forcing and moisture -- will slide into the area Sunday and Sunday night. The daytime hours will likely see increased clouds, with any chance of precipitation holding off until Sunday night. The highest chance will be along the PA border to the Allegheny Front. Lapse rates aren't very steep, so most areas would be rain and only the coldest areas potentially seeing some snowflakes. Regardless, any precipitation will be very light. Highs will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s, with clouds holding low temperatures above freezing in most areas.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... All in all, the long term period looks fairly quiet. On Monday, a longwave trough will be centered over Hudson Bay, while an upper level ridge will reside across the western CONUS. A weak mid-level disturbance displaced well to the south of the longer wave trough will approach the area on Monday, pushing a weak surface cold front through our area. With limited moisture ahead of the front and the best forcing for ascent displaced well to our north, little if any precipitation is expected. The best chance for a few showers Monday afternoon through Monday Night will be in the typically favored upslope regions to the west of the Blue Ridge.
Another shortwave disturbance embedded in northwesterly flow will approach the area late Tuesday into Tuesday Night. Once again, little to no precipitation is expected, with upslope areas having the highest chance for a (snow) shower or two. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance are in good agreement that high pressure will build overhead for Wednesday and Thursday, leading to mostly sunny skies.