|Dew Point:||28.4°F (-2.0°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||28.58" (967.9 mb)|
Isolated Rain Showers then Patchy FogLow: 65
Patchy Fog then Slight Chance Rain ShowersHigh: 83 Low: 57
SunnyHigh: 71 Low: 55
SunnyHigh: 76 Low: 61
Mostly SunnyHigh: 80 Low: 57
Isolated rain showers before 8pm, then patchy fog. Mostly clear, with a low around 65. Southwest wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Patchy fog before 9am, then a slight chance of rain showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Southwest wind 6 to 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
A slight chance of rain showers before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. West wind 6 to 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Sunny, with a high near 71. Northwest wind 6 to 9 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 55. West wind 5 to 8 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 76.
Mostly clear, with a low around 61.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 80.
Mostly clear, with a low around 57.
... High pressure will shift south and east tonight, allowing a cold front to approach from the Ohio Valley on Monday, and move through by Monday evening. High pressure then builds in again through midweek before another cold front approaches late in the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... The autumnal equinox may be tonight, but the weather is still fully in summer mode. Temperatures today are even warmer than yesterday, and today's highs won't be all that far from the records. Can't rule out a pop-up shower on/near the terrain through early evening, but coverage should be less than yesterday. Tonight should be dry, mostly clear, and warm. Urban areas probably won't drop below 70 again with most everyone else in the 60s.
The upper ridge weakens enough to allow an upper trough to dig into the Great Lakes region and an associated cold front to get here. Model trends the last few runs have been a bit slower and fairly significantly drier. Rain chances were removed completely from Charlottesville southward, and lowered almost everywhere else (especially east of I-81). Can't rule out a rumble of thunder but chances are awfully slim, with the surface front outrunning the upper support. The 12z GFS is just as warm -- if not a bit warmer -- tomorrow in the eastern 1/2 of the CWA as it is today, so max temps for tomorrow were raised to be similar to today. Western half should be cooler than today with more cloud cover.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Cold front passes the entire area by midnight Monday night. Perhaps a lingering shower east of I-95 in the evening. Tuesday will be much more seasonable as far as temps and humidity are concerned -- highs in the 70s to around 80s with dewpoints in the 50s or maybe even 40s. Lows Tuesday night also near seasonal normals under a nearly clear sky.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Surface high pressure and upper level ridging will dominate over the region Wednesday, leading to dry conditions and above normal temperatures in the lower 80s. The ridge begins to break down Wednesday evening as the surface high shifts off the southeast coast and a cold front nears the Great Lakes Region. This will allow for increasing southerly flow ahead of the front on Thursday, which will bring our next chance of rain to the area. Unfortunately, this will be much like the front we are expecting Monday, moisture starved and weakening as it crosses the mountains with the best upper level support residing to our north. We will see a brief drop in temperatures on Friday in the wake of the front, with dry conditions forecast. Surface high pressure will quickly transit the Mid Atlantic region, shifting east of the Delmarva Friday night, allowing for a return flow to setup once again. After which, a strong upper ridge builds over the eastern U.S., delivering temperatures well above normal. Latest guidance indicates 850 temps nearing 20C, which would result in temperatures nearing 90 degrees as we head into the last weekend of September.